Guesstimate – revenue of Google AdSense

Following are Guesstimates by me on what might be the revenues of Google AdSense (TAM SAM SOM).

Parameter	Calculation	Value	Remarks
World Population		7 billion	Total world population
Population with access to Google	2 billion people can’t access Google	5 billion	Google is banned in China and some dictatorship countries (North Korea, Syria, Cuba, Iran). Adsense got banned in Russia after the Ukraine war.
Educated people in the world	80% of population	4 billion	Education is close to 100 in developed countries and less in developing ones (Africa, Asia, etc.)
People with Internet access	60% of educated population	2.4 billion	We remove very small babies, elderly, and relatively poor.
Total Addressable Population		2.4 billion people
Daily adsense views by kids (3-17)	(20% of 2.4 billion) X 10	4.8 billion page views / day	Kids have restricted access mostly and see ads via YouTube. We take 10 views / day.
Daily adsense views by adults (18-65)	(50% of 2.4 billion) X 25	30 billion page views / day	Adults see 25 web pages / YouTube videos a day. Google search in the office and YouTube at home.
Daily adsense views by elderly / retired	(30% of 2.4 billion) X 40	28.8 billion page views / day	Elderly / retired have a lot of free time so they view 40 web pages / YouTube videos a day.
Total Daily Page Views		63.6 billion page views / day
Daily Revenue from Ad Views	((63.6 billion) / 1000) * 1	$ 63.6 million	On average, 1000 ad views pay 1 dollar. Some keywords pay more, some less. Cost is less in developing countries. We take an average of $1.
Daily Revenue from Ad Clicks	((63.6 billion) / 100) * 1	$ 636 million	On average, if 100 people view ads then 1 of them clicks. We take an average of $1 charge per click.
Total Daily Revenue		$ 699.6 million
Yearly Revenue from Ad Clicks	(699.6 million) * 365	$ 255.354 billion
Total Yearly Revenue of Google Adsense		Around $ 255 billion

(Header photo by Pixabay)